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Sovereign Risk Ceilings: Rethinking Credit Assessment Through Risk Disaggregation
Read more about Sovereign Risk Ceilings: Rethinking Credit Assessment Through Risk Disaggregation

Financing Climate & Sustainable Development / Report

Sovereign Risk Ceilings: Rethinking Credit Assessment Through Risk Disaggregation

Diagnosing how the sovereign ceiling functions as a simplifying shortcut that can obscure meaningful differences across borrowers, and proposing an alternative credit rating approach based on disaggregating sovereign risk into specific transmission channels.

  • IZ
  • Robert Ginsburg, Senior Fellow
  • WW+3

Igor Zelezetskii and 5 more

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Sustainable Finance

Designing financial frameworks and strategies that align financial-sector decision-making with real-economy climate and development outcomes.

CCSI - Sustainable Finance

Why It Matters

The financial system consistently misreads where risk actually lies and where value can be created. Capital costs remain highest where climate and development investment could deliver the strongest economic returns—particularly in emerging markets with growing demand and innovation potential. Conflated risk assessments, institutional conservatism across public and private finance, and reliance on net-zero pledges that are weakly linked to real investment decisions continue to divert capital away from the global development and climate agenda.

 

CCSI - Sustainable Finance

Our Approach

We focus on what the financial sector can realistically advance to support real economic transformation. Many climate and development investments offer strong long-term value, yet capital fails to reach them due to risk misperception, regulatory constraints, and underused financial instruments — especially in EMDEs, where future growth and resilience will be determined. We examine how risks are priced and distributed, why credit enhancement and innovative instruments remain underdeployed, and how financial institutions can move beyond passive emissions metrics toward financing that supports structural change. 

We work across the global financial architecture — including credit rating agencies, export credit agencies, and private investors — to identify and implement solutions that direct capital to where it can create the greatest long-term value.

In Focus

From Planetary Hazard to Financial Stability: Disentangling Climate Risk and Institutional Responsibility
Read more about From Planetary Hazard to Financial Stability: Disentangling Climate Risk and Institutional Responsibility

Financing Climate & Sustainable Development / Report

From Planetary Hazard to Financial Stability: Disentangling Climate Risk and Institutional Responsibility

Distinguishing between planetary, economic, and financial risks, and the six distinct policy responses to them. This paper examines a range of public and private institutions whose mandates relate to those responses in distinct ways.

  • Lisa Sachs, Director
  • DF
  • QH

Lisa Sachs and 2 more

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IN
Irina NaoumovaLisa SachsLisa Sachs
MH
Md Tareq Bin Hossain
NN
Nazly Nardi
RL
Ru-Shiun Liou
AG
Alexandra GuisingerHansika AgrawalHansika AgrawalEsther AkwiiEsther Akwii
LW
Lu WangAnjaly AriyanayagamAnjaly Ariyanayagam
AM
Armand de MestralBen BaragaBen Baraga
CK
Catherine KessedjianSebastian BarretoSebastian Barreto
KT
Kenneth P. ThomasMartin Dietrich BrauchMartin Dietrich BrauchAna Maria Camelo VegaAna Maria Camelo Vega
RL
Ralph Alexander Lorz
BM
Birgit MeyerPaulo CunhaPaulo Cunha
JD
Julian DonaubauerLara FornabaioLara FornabaioHelena FuHelena Fu
KS
Kimmo SinivuoriLaura Garcia CancinoLaura Garcia Cancino
SS
Stephen M. SchwebelAniruddha Jaydeokar Aniruddha Jaydeokar 
GH
Gus Van Harten
DR
Dylan G. RassierHazel LeHazel Le
RK
Ralf KrügerVishal (Vishy) ManveVishal (Vishy) Manve
GM
Gary McMahonSara SaloumSara SaloumLadan MehranvarLadan MehranvarNancy SiporinNancy Siporin
PR
Peter RobinsonLisa SweatLisa Sweat
LB
Louis Brennan
CC
Charles-Emmanuel CôtéPerrine ToledanoPerrine Toledano
AJ
Anna Joubin-BretBradford M. WillisBradford M. WillisJeffrey D. SachsJeffrey D. Sachs
JK
Joachim Karl
DK
David KienzlerSheikh Khalid Bin Mustahail Al MashaniSheikh Khalid Bin Mustahail Al MashaniTucker WilkeTucker WilkeRabah ArezkiRabah Arezki
SJ
Srividya JandhyalaJoseph BellJoseph Bell
MP
Miguel Torres PretoJoan CarlingJoan Carling
JG
Jose GuimonAlexandre S. D’AmbrosioAlexandre S. D’Ambrosio
KL
Katherine Lama
MO
Mevelyn OngOlivier De SchutterOlivier De Schutter
RS
Robbie SchwiederRohitesh DhawanRohitesh DhawanJonathan T. FriedJonathan T. Fried
TG
Tarcisio Gazzini
JS
Joseph (Yusuf) SaeiKadir S. GungorKadir S. Gungor
CD
Claire DebucquoisGabrielle Kaufmann-KohlerGabrielle Kaufmann-Kohler
DC
David CollinsKerry KennedyKerry KennedySheila KhamaSheila Khama
VM
Vasiliki Mavroeidi
IS
Ilan StraussIris KrebberIris KrebberJustin Yifu LinJustin Yifu Lin
RM
Rory MacmillanAntonio M.A. PedroAntonio M.A. Pedro
JB
Jason BlechmanM SornarajahM Sornarajah
RK
Richard KeckAbigail Abrash WaltonAbigail Abrash Walton
AM
Ashraf Ali MahateLouis T. WellsLouis T. WellsMaria Luiza de Oliveira Pinto e PaivaMaria Luiza de Oliveira Pinto e Paiva
TO
Terutomo OzawaJames ZhanJames Zhan
MP
Michele PotestàAndrew BernsteinAndrew Bernstein
ND
Nigel Driffield
DB
David BaileyPaul DeNoonPaul DeNoonAhmed Ihab GamaleldinAhmed Ihab Gamaleldin
JL
Jing LiRobert GinsburgRobert Ginsburg
VS
Victor Steenbergen
LN
Lilac NachumLuke HattonLuke Hatton
CT
Catharine TitiDenise Hearn Denise Hearn 
JO
James OttoLise JohnsonLise JohnsonDarius NassiryDarius Nassiry
MH
Mélida HodgsonMouhamadou KaneMouhamadou Kane
SZ
Sheng Zhang
JB
John BushLeila KazemiLeila KazemiAllan MarksAllan Marks
SS
Sherry Stephenson
SK
Stephen KobrinTom MitroTom MitroCarlo PapaCarlo Papa
GH
Gary HufbauerMauricio RodasMauricio Rodas
OÖ
Olle ÖstenssonKarl P. SauvantKarl P. Sauvant
RA
Rudolf AdlungIgor ZelezetskiiIgor Zelezetskii
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Pedro Villegas
AS
Alpa ShahRobert van ZwietenRobert van Zwieten
FB
Fabrizio Di Benedetto
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Muhamad Ababil Akram
FB
Frank Bickenbach
MB
Manuel BeltránJérôme SchmittJérôme Schmitt
KV
Kenneth J. Vandevelde
TN
Tina Nguyen 
KT
Katherine Thomas
WL
Wan-Hsin Liu
RG
Rainer Geiger
SW
Sirui Wang
AJ
Ajay Jagdish
AR
Ashwini Ramanathan
GB
Guillaume Beaumier
CW
Celine Yan Wang
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Nathan M. Jensen
JC
Jeremy Caddel
AA
Anar Amarjargal
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Merim Razbaeva
LA
Luis M. Almeida
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Pulkit Bajpai
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James Nicholson
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Chimi Dorji
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Makane Moïse Mbengue
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Juan David Rodriguez-Rios
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Valentina Fontana
DF
Danielle Fujimoto
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Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez
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Eve Kaplan-Walbrecht
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Michael J. Enright
KK
Kailey Kimsa
RT
Rafael Tamayo-Álvarez
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Ananya Mathur
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Eunsuk Hong
CR
Clara Roorda
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Lily McRae
SM
Shige Makino
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Anna De Luca
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Hyeock Lee
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Shunta Ofusa
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Alisha Anderson
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Maryla Maliszewska
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Carlos Ivan Aguilar Rocha
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Josaphat Kweka
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Maria Cecilia Chacon Rendon
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Steven Globerman
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Lauge N. Skovgaard Poulsen
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María Alejandra Salamanca
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Carlos A. Primo Braga
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Manraaj Singh
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Eszter Varga
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Inés Pérez Arroyo
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Alexandra Westfall
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Maggie Cascadden
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Christy Wong
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Peyton Choo
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Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee
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Helena Fu
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Quentin Harel
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Herfried Wöss
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Matthew Hodgson
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Wolfgang Sofka
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Robert Basedow
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Moataz Hussein
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Kennedy O. Opalo
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Felipe Hees
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Gözde Isik
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Anne van Aaken
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Gordon Clark
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Henry Loewendahl
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Isabel Munilla
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Ravi Ramamurti
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Jared Talkin
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Tidiane Kinda
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Nahom Ghebrihiwet
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Wenhua Shan
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Gabriel Bottini
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Umirdinov Alisher
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Andrew D. Mitchell
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Soledad Mills
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Tania Voon
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Isabelle Ramdoo
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Lukas Linsi
FG
Frank J. Garcia
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Marion A. Creach
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Thor Petersen
JK
Jane Kelsey
FM
Fabio Morosini
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Yun Zheng
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Marie Poirot
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Jeremy Perelman
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Ana Arias Urones
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Adrien Le Louarn
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Tulika Bansal
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Miguel Pérez Ludeña
SG
Saurabh Garg
MK
Mateusz Kasprowicz
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Malan Rietveld
MK
Michail Karoglou
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Xavier M. Forneris
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Jun Xia
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Orlando F. Cabrera C.
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Paulo Cavallo
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Ritwika Sen
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Wolfgang Alschner
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Pavel Trunin
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Akihiko Tamura
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Richard Ouellet
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Silvia Karina Fiezzoni
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Matteo Vaccaro-Incisa
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Gillian Davidson
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Roel Nieuwenkamp
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Casper Sonesson
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Khalil Hamdani
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Pierre Farcot
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David Chriki
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Noémie Lisbonis-Boyer
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Antje Kunst
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Jan Anton van Zanten
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David Uzsoki
RT
Rob van Tulder
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Morten Siersted
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Shaun Mann
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David Manley
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Scott Wayne
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Willison Mutagwaba
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David Laborde
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John Keyser
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Olivier Hartmann
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Alina Antoci
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Stephen E. Shay
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Guillermo Arenas
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Bede Lyimo
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Barak Hoffman
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James Harrison
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Robert Kirk
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Bernali Choudhury
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Jordon Kuschminder
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Emma Aisbett
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H.E. María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
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Benjamin Boakye
DR
Dani Rodrik
TM
Theodore H. Moran
KS
Kavaljit Singh
CC
Carlos Correa
MK
Meg Kinnear
JK
Jan Knoerich
DB
David R. Boyd
AT
Ana Teresa Tavares-Lehmann
L
Luc Bonnafous
WJ
Wouter P.F. Schmit Jongbloed
U
Upmanu Lall
Y
Yash Amonkar
SS
Salli Anne Swartz
EN
Evi Neophytou
JW
Joseph M. Wilde-Ramsing
PP
Pedro Barreto da Rocha Paranhos
PC
Pedro Mendonça Cavalcante
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Henrique Choer Moraes
LM
Linda Moon
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Robert W. Schwieder
VC
Victor Z. Chen
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Geraldine McAllister
JP
Jose Ramon Perea
OV
Oleksandr Volkov
AT
Andreas Tornaritis
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Sritha Reddy
AS
Alexandra Sdoukou
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JM
Jacqueline Mandelbaum
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Andrew Kerner
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AD
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James Rising
LG
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HP
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SA
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ER
Estela Riveros
RC
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DB
Diana Valdéz Barboza
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Martín Oviedo Pascottini
LB
Lauren Barredo
CL
Cecilia Llamosas
VO
Victorio Oxilia
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Eniko Horvath
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Daniel Ríos Festner
LW
Laura Waldman
YW
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YH
Yinbo Hu
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Ryan Ballard
JS
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William Sommer
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MS
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SA
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KD
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NB
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JG
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AH
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George A. Bermann
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MM
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JC
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JH
Jonathan Hobbs
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Callum Thomas
RP
Robert K. Perrons
DM
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MM
Marie Miller
AC
Alicia Inés Caballero
PH
Patrick R.P. Heller
II
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JC
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TS
Thomas Schorr
KM
Kristin Mendoza
MS
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SB
Shayan Banerjee
MC
Michael Chiswick-Patterson
EG
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LH
Logan Hinderliter
JK
Jürgen Kurtz
CA
Cody Aceveda
ML
Markus Leibrecht
MS
Matthew Stephenson
RL
Rodrigo Polanco Lazo
MG
Mara Greenberg
SF
Susan D. Franck
AC
Aaron Cosbey
RO
Ricardo Soares de Oliveira
WM
William Megginson
KG
Kate Gannon
VF
Veljko Fotak
BS
Bethany Saul
SB
Subrata Bhattacharjee
MA
Manon Aubry
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Diana McGinley
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Carlos Razo
JB
James Bond
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Amanda Addison
MM
Michael Mortimore
JW
Johnny West
AK
Ashley Starr Kinseth
OB
Octavio de Barros
IS
Iain Steel
CS
Carin Smaller
HE
Heather Eisenlord
LL
Luis Afonso Lima
LW
Lauren Waugh
CK
Charles Kovacs
ML
Max Linsen
EB
Emily Bugden
LP
Luke Eric Peterson
LC
Liesbeth Casier
AB
Andrea M. Bassi
JT
José Luis Gallardo Torres
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Reuven S. Avi-Yonah
SS
Susan Sell
ER
Esteban F.Fresno Rodríguez
LM
Lily McRae
SP
Santiago Peña
SH
Song Hong
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Chloe Zhou
KG
Kevin P. Gallagher
FG
Frank Garcia
MO
Mario Osorio
AC
Armand de Mestral C.M.
AS
Alvaro Santos
PS
Premila Nazareth Satyanand
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Lori Wallach
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David N. Fagan
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José Antonio Ocampo
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Pierre Habbard
DR
Daniel Rangel
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Mark E. Plotkin
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Sharan Burrow
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Kanika Gupta
EM
Edmund J. Malesky
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Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky
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Michelle Chan
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Christian Bellak
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Phil Bloomer
AT
Ana Toimil
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Alexandre de Gramont
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Brian Harley
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Lena Raxter
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Jason Webb Yackee
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Ayesha Chatterjee
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Jaya Prakash Pradhan
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Robin Marie Kelly
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Frédéric G. Sourgens
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Jean Boddewyn
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Wolfgang A. Maschek
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Sudhanshu Roy
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Michael D. Nolan
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Adeet Dobhal
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Vishwas P. Govitrikar
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Padma Mallampally
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Adrien Rose
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Harry G. Broadman
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Julien Topal
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Thomas Gourdon
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Giorgio Sacerdoti
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Nicolas Pickard Garcia
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Nilgün Gökgür
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Romain Poivet
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Miles Killingsworth
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Shawn Pelsinger
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Lucas Clover Alcolea
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Daniel M. Firger
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Huiping Chen
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Anna-Sophie Kloppe
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Nicolás Marcelo Perrone
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Shefa Siegel
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Joel Negin
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Achyuth Anil
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Gert Bruche
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Felton Johnston
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Mariano Gomezperalta
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Mary Wang
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Kabir Duggal
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Justin Cuddihey
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Hermann Ferré
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Matthew C. Porterfield
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Tyler Alviano
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Roger Smeets
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Elizabeth Fox
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Jessica Fanzo
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Qiaozi Guanglin
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Arjen Slangen
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Fanny Marie Everard
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Jean-François Hennart
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Elena Klonsky
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Sjoerd Beugelsdijk
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Sumanth Uppuluru
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Joel H. Moser
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Angeliki E Stougiannou
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Manfred Schekulin
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Akshay Malhotra
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George Kahale, III
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Ruihong Li
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Daniel H. Rosen
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Chhavi Maggu
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Thilo Hanemann
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Burulgul Sultanova
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John Evans
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Yannick Fiedler
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Felix Martin Lockman
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Beatriz Nofa
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Igor Zelezetskii
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Francisco Sercovich
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Mark Davis
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Kamil Gérard Ahmed
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Kirsten Hund
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José E. AlvarezRhian-Mari Thomas OBERhian-Mari Thomas OBE
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Mark Kantor
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Lucy Musonda
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Ana-Maria Poveda Garcés
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Nikiwe Msoni
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Ken Davies
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Elias Simbeye
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Mira Wilkins
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Dyless Mbewe
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Tadahiro Asami
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Jesinta Kunda
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Seev Hirsch
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Solomon Mwampikita
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Alice H. Amsden
H
Husnawati
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Todd Allee
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Risdawati Ahmad
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Clint Peinhardt
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Imam Mas’ud
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Xiaoying Huo
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Didi Hardiana
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Chen Zhao
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Kisran Makati
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Jonathan Strauss
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Kiki Sriyanti
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Kalman KalotayIza CamarilloIza Camarillo
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Daniel Villar
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Amaelle Seigneret
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Persephone Economou
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Jo En Low
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Albert Bressand
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Xiaofang Shen
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James Morrissey
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Marc Jacob
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Romany Webb
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Abdoul’ Ganiou Mijiyawa
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Alejandra Cicero
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Stephen Brooks
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Francisco García
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Abhijit Sharan
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Marino Baldi
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Michael Burger
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Michael Jarvis
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Jeff Wood
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Uri Dadush
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Susan Maples
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Lorenzo Cotula
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Juan José Herrera
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Jonathan Bonitcha
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Jeffrey Davidson
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Ayesha Audu
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Matthew Genasci
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Weijun Xie
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Zorigt Dashdorj
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Cynthia Sanborn
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Nadra Rahman
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Motoko Aizawa
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Rumbidzai Maweni
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Paolo Natali
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Jeff Geipel
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Nicola Woodroffe
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Heather Marquette
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Nathaniah JacobsCarolina Ocampo-MayaCarolina Ocampo-MayaSophie Maria ThomashausenSophie Maria Thomashausen
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Mark Robinson
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Olena Pavlenko
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Elisa Peter
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Pallavi Roy
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Kaisa Toroskainen
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Moses Kulaba
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Amir Shafaie
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    Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Transitions: Emergent Opportunities, Risks, and Governance
    Read more about Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Transitions: Emergent Opportunities, Risks, and Governance

    Development Planning / Report

    Artificial Intelligence and Sustainability Transitions: Emergent Opportunities, Risks, and Governance

    Exploring how AI is reshaping sustainability transitions across planetary health, energy systems, industry and labor, finance, and democratic resilience — where the same capabilities that open new pathways also introduce systemic risks that no single sector can address alone. CCSI and Hitachi's report maps AI’s emerging risks and opportunities, and presents a global governance framework to manage this technological transition sustainably.

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    • Sara Saloum, Program Associate
    • Perrine Toledano, Director of Research and Policy+1

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